Thursday, May 31, 2007

May 31,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4295.80.

NIFTY had a new intraday and new closing high yesterday. NIFTY has two simultaneous high close settlements. It has to be watched how long the NIFTY consolidates. NIFTY is consolidating and moves up slowly and steadily. It is better to watch the trend for atleast three trading sessions, before taking a directional call.

Though chart patterns looks good, it has signalled many possible intraday lows below 4245,4145, 3982, 3800,..... It serves as a note of caution while trading. Any long position should have a strict stop loss. Even the bullishness would just help the market to move by 5% from the current levels, which may not be great.

Liquidity might get sucked out of the markets, after the large public offerings in the recent future - DLF, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. It could affect the bull rally to some extent. This is a note of caution for long term investors.

Rupee is overvalued by 15%+ in real(fundamental) terms. So, if there is any depreciation in Rupee, it would reverse the FII inflows. Although it may not take place overnight, it provides a clue to stay cautious.

If NIFTY closes below 4178, the strength of the rally might weaken.

NIFTY has an upper target above 4415. But the timeframe for the target to be achieved is unpredictable.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4215.30. No immediate resistance. Strong support stays near 4050-4100 level.

UPPER BAND-> 4329.05.

LOWER BAND-> 4019.92.

Higher upper band provides some scope for NIFTY on the upperside.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Wednesday, May 30, 2007

May 29,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4293.25. SENSEX close 14508.21.

NIFTY has closed above its all time high again. Another intraday high above yesterday's intraday high of 4298.85 is inevitable. If this high is not tested today, expect it to be tested some other day in the future. Even the bullishness would just help the market to move 5-10% from the current levels, which may not be great.

Though chart patterns looks good, it has signalled many possible intraday lows below 4145, 3982, 3800,..... It serves as a note of caution while trading. Any long position should have a strict stop loss.

Liquidity might get sucked out of the markets, after the large public offerings in the recent future - DLF, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. It could affect the bull rally to some extent. This is a note of caution for long term investors.

If NIFTY closes below 4178, the strength of the rally might weaken.

NIFTY has an upper target above 4415. But the timeframe for the target to be achieved is unpredictable.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4050.80. No immediate resistance. Strong support stays near 4050-4100 level.

UPPER BAND-> 4322.

LOWER BAND-> 4011.16.

Higher upper band provides some scope for NIFTY on the upperside.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

May 29,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4256.55. SENSEX close 14397.89.

As mentioned yesterday (An intraday high above 4261 is inevitable), NIFTY surpassed the level mentioned in the opening itself and achieved even a new all time high.

NIFTY has signalled indecisiveness after a long time. Though chart patterns looks good, it has signalled many possible intraday lows below 4145, 3982, 3800,.....

Liquidity might get sucked out of the markets, after the two large public offerings - DLF and ICICI bank. It could affect the bull rally to some extent. This is a note of caution for long term investors.

Any trading position should have a strict stop loss. If NIFTY closes below 4178, the strength of the rally might weaken.

NIFTY has an upper target above 4415. But the timeframe for the target to be achieved is unpredictable.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4050.80. No immediate resistance. Strong support stays near 4050-4100 level.

UPPER BAND-> 4305.44.

LOWER BAND-> 4016.71.

Higher upper band provides some scope for NIFTY on the upperside.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Monday, May 28, 2007

May 28,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4248.10. SENSEX close 14338.40.

NIFTY bounced back exactly near crucial trend line support level on friday. Closing just above sma is a sigh of relief.

An intraday high above 4261 is inevitable, although the time frame for it to occur is unpredictable asusual. Or it may even take place today itself.

Liquidity might get sucked out of the markets, after the two large public offerings - DLF and ICICI bank. It could affect the bull rally to some extent. This is a note of caution for long term investors.

Any trading position should have a strict stop loss. If NIFTY closes below 4178, the strength of the rally might weaken.

NIFTY has an upper target above 4415. But the timeframe for the target to be achieved is unpredictable.

A likely low below 3982 is inevitable. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable. NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4050.80. No immediate resistance. Strong support stays near 4050-4100 level.

UPPER BAND-> 4294.50.

LOWER BAND-> 4019.20.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Friday, May 25, 2007

May 25,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4204.9. SENSEX close 14218.11.

NIFTY has closed below short term moving average after 8 trading days. It is not very encouraging. Upward momentum gets a breather. It has to be keenly watched before taking any position. A close below lower upper band around 4217 too doesn't go well with the NIFTY. So, it has to be watched, if the rally could be sustained.

But liquidity and other factors could change the trend. Liquidity might get sucked out, after the two large public offerings - DLF and ICICI bank. It could affect the bull rally to some extent. This is a note of caution for long term investors.

Any trading position should have a strict stop loss. If NIFTY closes below 4178, the strength of the rally might weaken.

NIFTY has an upper target above 4415. But the timeframe for the target to be achieved is unpredictable.

A likely low below 3982 is inevitable. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable. NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4155. Immediate resistance stays at 4256.25. Strong support stays near 4050-4100 level.

UPPER BAND-> 4282.99.

LOWER BAND-> 4020.5.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

May 24,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4246.20. SENSEX close 14363.26.

NIFTY has made another new intraday high again. But some sell off, to book profits after a rally, has taken place. NIFTY has closed below the upperband. If it has closed above upper band, the uptrend might stay intact. Though the momentum is positive, utmost caution is the need of the hour. Any trading position should have a strict stop loss. If NIFTY closes below 4178, the strength of the rally might weaken.

NIFTY has an upper target above 4415. But the timeframe for the target to be achieved is unpredictable.

A likely low below 3982 is inevitable. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable. NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4206.65. No immediate resistance. Strong support stays near 4050-4100 level.

UPPER BAND-> 4278.

LOWER BAND-> 4012.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

May 23,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4278.10. SENSEX close 14453.72.

NIFTY has made a new high again.As mentioned yesterday NIFTY made another high. NIFTY has closed above the upperband again.Though the momentum is positive, utmost caution is the need of the hour. Any trading position should have a strict stop loss.

NIFTY has an upper target above 4415. But the timeframe for the target to be achieved is unpredictable.

A likely low below 3982 is inevitable. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable. NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4206.65. No immediate resistance. Strong support stays near 4050-4100 level.

UPPER BAND-> 4264.50

LOWER BAND-> 4012.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

May 21,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4260.90. SENSEX close 14418.60.

NIFTY has made all time highs alas! Yesterday's momentum implies another intraday high above the new high(4269.35) in a future trading day. It needs not take place today itself.

Chart pattern is excellent for an upward momentum. But trade with caution. NIFTY has closed above the upperband. Any position should have strict stop loss in the days to come.

NIFTY has an upper target above 4415. But the timeframe for the target to be achieved is unpredictable.

A likely low below 3982 is inevitable. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable. NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4206.65. No immediate resistance.

UPPER BAND-> 4248.40

LOWER BAND-> 4001.54

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Monday, May 21, 2007

May 21,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4214.5. SENSEX close 14303.40.

NIFTY signals indecisiveness again. If NIFTY closes above previous high 4224.25 by a significant margin, many equations could change. An intraday high above previous high of 4245.30 implies another intraday high above the new high in a future trading day.

For intraday traders a 20 to 30 points above the upper band 4229.35 would act as a resistance. The outlook is neutral, neither bullish nor bearish and little bit indecisive. How long will the rally continue is unpredictable. As of now there are no upper targets.

A likely low below 3982 is inevitable. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable. NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term.

When there is a deep correction, an intraday low below 3575 is likely (medium term to long term). It does mean that it is the time to book profits.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4155. No immediate resistance. Previous high of 4245.30 stays as a short term resistance.

UPPER BAND-> 4229.35

LOWER BAND-> 3996.80

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Friday, May 18, 2007

May 17,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4219.55. SENSEX close 14299.71.

As mentioned in previous post a close above 4150 has made NIFTY bullish. Similarly it was mentioned earlier a high above 4217.90 is inevitable, which was tested yesterday. But it didnot test previous highs. If NIFTY closes above previous high 4224.25 by a significant margin, many equations could change. An intraday high above previous high of 4245.30 implies another intraday high above the new high in a future trading day.

For intraday traders a 20 to 30 points above the upper band 4221.50 would act as a resistance. The outlook is neutral, neither bullish nor bearish and little bit indecisive. As NIFTY has closed near upper band some dilemma has cropped in. How long will the rally continue is unpredictable. As of now there are no upper targets.

A likely low below 3982 is inevitable. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable. NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term.

When there is a deep correction, an intraday low below 3575 is likely (medium term to long term). It does mean that it is the time to book profits.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4155. No immediate resistance. Previous high of 4245.30 stays as a short term resistance.

UPPER BAND-> 4221.48

LOWER BAND-> 3982.83

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

May 16,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4120.30. SENSEX close13929.33.

As mentioned in yesterday's post NIFTY has tested 4150. But only if NIFTY closes above 4150 levels in short term the bullish momentum would continue. NIFTY keeps on signalling indecisiveness most often. Markets stays in a range bound bands due to lack of any fresh triggers. It is surprising to see it correcting meagre, when the world markets had a great correction. It may be due to the limited upside encountered in the recent past, when compared to the new highs made by other markets.

The next triggers might be based on the reaction of the indices of other markets or the movement of Rupee-dollar. If the dollar depriciates below Rs.40, it might trigger a sell off in IT stocks. If the dollar appreciates by a rupee or two, then it might make FIIs to pull money out of our market.

Either upward movement or downward movement, which could take place in short term, would be very steep. Contracting bands signals a steep raise or fall in short term.

Another intraday high above 4150 (short to medium term) is likely. Similarly a likely low below 3982 is inevitable too. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable.

When there is a deep correction, an intraday low below 3575 is likely (medium term to long term). NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term.
It does mean that it is the time to book profits.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4050.80. No immediate resistance.

UPPER BAND-> 4210.40

LOWER BAND-> 3950.14

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

May 15,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4134.30. SENSEX close13965.86.

As mentioned in yesterday's post NIFTY has tested 4095, 4130 & 4215 in yesterday's upward rally. But only if NIFTY closes above the recent high(4177.85) in short term the bullish momentum would continue.

An intraday high above 4150 is likely. Similarly a likely low below 3982 is inevitable too. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable.

When there is a deep correction, an intraday low below 3575 is likely (medium term to long term). NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term.
It does mean that it is the time to book profits.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 3980.65. No immediate resistance. This support level remained unbroken on friday.

UPPER BAND-> 4234.8

LOWER BAND-> 3898

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Monday, May 14, 2007

May 14,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4076.65.

NIFTY's indecisiveness stays. It could not set a trend decisively to move either way. If NIFTY has to move up further and test the recent highs, it has to close at and above 4150.75.

NIFTY likely to move above 4095, 4130 & 4215 (inevitable). Similarly a likely low below 3982 is inevitable too. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable.

Econonic data and indicators looks positive. But utmost caution should be exercised.

When there is a deep correction, an intraday low below 3575 is likely (medium term to long term). NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term. It does mean that it is the time to book profits.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 3980.65. No immediate resistance. This support level remained unbroken on friday.

UPPER BAND-> 4240

LOWER BAND-> 3866.33

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Friday, May 11, 2007

May 11,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4066.80. BSE SENSEX 13771.23.

As mentioned yesterday, NIFTY's positive momentum was a short lived one. This is because of the chart pattern, which signals weakness. If NIFTY has to move up further and test the recent highs, it has to close at and above 4150.75.

NIFTY likely to move above 4130 & 4215 (inevitable). Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable.

When there is a deep correction, an intraday low below 3575 is likely (medium term to long term). NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term. It does mean that it is the time to book profits.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 3980.65. No immediate resistance.

UPPER BAND-> 4249.65

LOWER BAND-> 3835.60

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

May 10,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4079.30. BSE SENSEX 13781.51.

NIFTY has signalled indecisiveness again. It may be due to FED interest rates announcement. Fed has left interest rates untouched and have not made any hawkish comments. So, it is a positive news for the market, which may help in short term upward momentum.

But the chart pattern doesn't look encouraging. If NIFTY has to move up further and test the recent highs, it has to close at and above 4150.75.

NIFTY likely to test 4217.90. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable.

When there is a deep correction, an intraday low below 3575 is likely (medium term to long term). NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term. This doesnot mean that market would turn bearish immediately. However, it does mean that it is the time to book profits.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 3980.65. Immediate resistance stays at
4093.15.


UPPER BAND-> 4256

LOWER BAND-> 3807.95

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.

Monday, May 07, 2007

May 6,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4117.35. BSE SENSEX 13934.2.

NIFTY has tested 4161.20 as mentioned in previous post. But it couldnot stay with the momentum. NIFTY likely to test 4217.90. Although, the timeframe to test it might be unpredictable.

When there is a deep correction, an intraday low below 3575 is likely (medium term to long term). NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term. This doesnot mean that market would turn bearish immediately. However, it does mean that it is the time to book profits.

There are no further triggers, except a few, that could drive markets upside. So, if there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4071.20. No resistance.

UPPER BAND-> 4285

LOWER BAND-> 3674.11

High upper band and Low lower band provides scope for a steep raise or fall based on the momentum. 20 to 40 points above upper band may act as intraday resistance zone for NIFTY.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]

Friday, May 04, 2007

May 4,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4150.85. BSE SENSEX 14078.21.

NIFTY has finally broke out again. NIFTY likely to test yesterday's high of 4161.2 and 4217.90. Although the timeframe for it to test the said levels might not be predictable. Chart pattern is looking good.

When there is a deep correction, an intraday low below 3575 is likely (medium term to long term). NIFTY is likely to test a low below 3800 in the medium term.

This doesnot mean that market would turn bearish immediately. However, it does mean that it is the time to book profits. There are no further triggers, except a few that could drive markets upside. So, if there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 3980.65.

UPPER BAND-> 4290.98

LOWER BAND-> 3622.95

Upper band provides scope for higher upside, if there is an upward momentum. 20 to 40 points above upper band may act as intraday resistance zone for NIFTY.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]

Thursday, May 03, 2007

May 3,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4087.90.

NIFTY has signalled indecisiveness again. So further upside or downside may depend upon some triggers from local or global cues. If a lower high and lower low occurs today, then it may serve as a foundation for download trend in the days to come. So, today's movement in NIFTY may act as a trend setter for this month.

NIFTY likely to test 4217.90 in medium term, although the time frame cannot be predicted.

As mentioned in previous post an intraday low below 4110 & 4060 were tested on Friday and Monday session.

Now, it is time to mention the lower side targets- an intraday low below 3575 is likely in the medium term. This doesnot mean that market would turn bearish immediately.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 3980.65. Immediate resistance stays at 4113.30.

UPPER BAND-> 4267.92

LOWER BAND-> 3614.65

Upper band provides scope for higher upside, if there is an upward momentum. 20 to 40 points above upper band may act as intraday resistance zone for NIFTY.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]