Monday, October 29, 2007

Oct 30,2007
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NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY Closes at 5905.90. Sensex Closes at 19977.67.

NIFTY tested previous high. We already mentioned in previous posts that the previous high would be tested sure. But yesterday's rally is due to irrational exuberance. Market has to cool before next leg of rally. Otherwise it might become a bubble. NIFTY closes above the upper band. It is not advisable to go long.

It is the time for consolidation or stay indecisive, since the volatality levels are high and the market is in overbought position. It is time for another corrective wave to take place, if the markets move up further. So, profits could be booked systematically, if the markets move up.

Although RBI's policy and Fed's policy likely to have some implications, it must be mentioned that market is moving towards a danger zone again. This time domestic money's contribution to this upmove is very significant. So, stay cautious.

As mentioned in previous post, NIFTY is likely to test a low below 4446 and 4453 in medium to long term.

Support is at 5644.

Rupees appreciation against dollar is a dangerous proposition for Indian Economy in long term. It might prevent and discourage new investments in Export oriented industries, Textiles, IT, Pharma, SMEs supplying raw materials, SEZs, etc., which have a major contribution in Indian Growth story might not have encouraging growth and end up in economic slowdown. If IT industry gets affected, spending could deplete and affect Real Estate firms, Banking, Consumer Durables,etc. Moreover, there is a chance of huge trade deficits and current account deficits, which could encourage FII outflows, which might affect markets.

Upper band -> 5872.

Lower band -> 4918.


Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Oct 23,2007
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NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY Closes at 5184. Sensex Closes at 17613.99.

NIFTY has closed below medium term sma for the first time in this fall. So, this is a place, where the trend would get set. Either it might bounce back or slide down. Wait and watch today's markets. It is a trend setting day. If the trend is negative, NIFTY could test the lower band in medium term.

NIFTY continues drifting down for the last five trading sessions. Now NIFTY has signalled indecisiveness after the fall. So, it is better to watch the NIFTY setting a new short term trend.

Although SEBI has cleared many apprehensions of FIIs, only the final draft proposals could bring clarity. So, uncertainity still prevails.

Market may stay volatile until a clear trend is set. Don't take any position as of now. Or just use some strategies like straddles.

SEBI's proposals on P-notes,RBI's policy statements, Federal's rate cuts, etc. have to be watched. So, the markets might remain unpredictable till the end of October.

NIFTY would test the previous high (5736.8) sure, in medium term to long term, since it got a technical confirmation for the high to be tested.

As mentioned in previous post NIFTY is likely to test a low below 4446 and 4453 in medium to long term.

Support is at 4986.55.

Rupees appreciation against dollar is a dangerous proposition for Indian Economy in long term. It might prevent and discourage new investments in Export oriented industries. Textiles, IT, Pharma, SMEs supplying raw materials, SEZs and other export based industries, which have a major contribution in Indian Growth story might not have encouraging growth and end up in economy slowdown. If IT industry gets affected, spending could comedown and affect Real Estate firms, Banking, Consumer Durables,etc. Moreover, there is a chance of huge trade deficits and current account deficits, which could encourage FII outflows, which might affect markets.

Upper band -> 5728.

Lower band -> 4728.


Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
TATA TELESERVICES Maharashtra

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Oct 18,2007
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NIFTY is sure to test yesterday's low in short to medium term. As of now, market looks like a 'Suspense Thriller'. Just watch it.

Expect nasty surprises. Fundflows from unregulated hedge funds would slowdown in the future due to SEBI's proposal. It is very good for our economy in longterm. It would prevent more inflows and stabilise forex markets.

Next support at 4986.55.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

Oct 17, 2007
------------


NIFTY closes at 5668.05. SENSEX closes at 19051.86.


Expect a free fall today. Markets might test lower circuit filter today.

Possibility of steep correction, is being mentioned in this post consistently, for past few weeks. Don't look for any support levels as of now.

Monday, October 15, 2007

Oct 15,2007
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NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY Closes at 5428.25.

NIFTY is likely to test a low below 5395 in the near future. Trade with utmost caution.

Sensex has almost tested the top for the FY 08, based on fundamental analysis. Further gains in Sensex implies a shift in valuation. Longterm investors should book profits, wherever they find their stocks fully valued. Indian economy is not looking so rosy and its growth momentum likely to slow down, based on various parameters.

NIFTY is in dangerous zone. It is in super risk zone. It is the time to start booking profits, irrespective of upward momentum. Higher volatality might bring a sudden fall, if there is any negative trigger. Time to trade cautious. Avoid fresh longs.

As mentioned in previous posts, NIFTY is likely to test a low below 4446 and 4453 in medium term.

Support is at 5225.63.

Longterm View:
=============
Rupee' appreciation against dollar is a dangerous proposition for Indian Economy in long term.

It might prevent and discourage new investments in Export oriented industries, Textiles, IT, Pharma, SMEs supplying raw materials, SEZs and other industries, which have a major contribution in Indian Growth story. These sectors might not grow fabulously in the years to come, which would result in economic slowdown.

If IT industry gets affected, spending could comedown and affect Real Estate firms, Banking, Consumer Durables,etc. Moreover, there is a chance of huge trade deficits and current account deficits, which could encourage FII outflows, which might affect markets.

Upper band -> 5616.

Lower band -> 4357.


Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
NONE

Friday, October 12, 2007

Oct 12,2007
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NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY Closes at 5524.85. Sensex Closes at 18814.07.

Book profits... Book profits..... Book profits..... Book profits....Book profits...

NIFTY has reached alarming highs. It is 31% above 200 day sma. If people don't book profits here, they won't find any cash in their hand to buy in dips.

Sensex has almost tested the top for the FY 08, based on fundamental analysis. Further gains in Sensex implies a shift in valuation. Longterm investors should book profits, wherever they find their stocks fully valued. Indian economy is not looking so rosy and its growth momentum likely to slow down, based on various parameters.

NIFTY is in dangerous zone. It is in super risk zone. It is the time to start booking profits, irrespective of upward momentum. Higher volatality might bring a sudden fall, if there is any negative trigger. Time to trade cautious. Avoid fresh longs.

As mentioned in previous post NIFTY is likely to test a low below 4446 and 4453 in medium term.

Support is at 5408.

Rupees appreciation against dollar is a dangerous proposition for Indian Economy in long term. It might prevent and discourage new investments in Export oriented industries. Textiles, IT, Pharma, SMEs supplying raw materials, SEZs and other export based industries, which have a major contribution in Indian Growth story might not have encouraging growth and end up in economy slowdown. If IT industry gets affected, spending could comedown and affect Real Estate firms, Banking, Consumer Durables,etc. Moreover, there is a chance of huge trade deficits and current account deficits, which could encourage FII outflows, which might affect markets.

Upper band -> 5572.

Lower band -> 4312.


Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
NONE

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Oct 11,2007
-----------

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY Closes at 5441.45. Sensex Closes at 18658.25.

Book profits... Book profits..... Book profits..... Book profits....Book profits...

Sensex has almost tested the top for the FY 08, based on fundamental analysis. Further gains in Sensex implies a shift to valuation. Longterm investors should book profits wherever they find their stocks fully valued. Indian economy is not looking so rosy and its growth momentum likely to slow down, based on various parameters.

NIFTY is in dangerous zone. It is in super risk zone. It is the time to start booking profits, irrespective of upward momentum. Higher volatality might bring a sudden fall, if there is any negative trigger. Time to trade cautious. Avoid fresh longs.

As mentioned in previous post NIFTY is likely to test a low below 4446 and 4453 in medium term.

Support is at 5225.

Rupees appreciation against dollar is a dangerous proposition for Indian Economy in long term. It might prevent and discourage new investments in Export oriented industries. Textiles, IT, Pharma, SMEs supplying raw materials, SEZs and other export based industries, which have a major contribution in Indian Growth story might not have encouraging growth and end up in economy slowdown. If IT industry gets affected, spending could comedown and affect Real Estate firms, Banking, Consumer Durables,etc. Moreover, there is a chance of huge trade deficits and current account deficits, which could encourage FII outflows, which might affect markets.

Upper band -> 5492.

Lower band -> 4294.



Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
NONE

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Oct 3,2007
-----------

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY Closes at 5068.95.

NIFTY has 10 consecutive positive candles. So, a consolidation or a little downward movement could be expected. Though the momentum seems to look good, it is safe to book profits in majority of the stocks.

NIFTY is in dangerous zone. It is the time to start booking profits, irrespective of upward momentum. Higher volatality might bring a sudden fall, if there is any negative trigger. Time to trade cautious. Avoid fresh longs.

As per the Fundamentals NIFTY could just move up by 10-15% from these levels. The higher levels to be tested has got a time lag till march - may. But good momentum prevailing at this juncture could be used to book profits and re-enter at lower levels.

As mentioned in previous post NIFTY is likely to test a low below 4446 and 4453 in medium term.

Support is at 4986.55.

Rupees appreciation against dollar is a dangerous proposition for Indian Economy in long term. It might prevent and discourage new investments in Export oriented industries. Textiles, IT and other exporting industries, which have a major contribution in Indian Growth story might not have encouraging growth and end up in economy slowdown. If IT industry gets affected, spending could comedown and affect Real Estate firms, Banking, Consumer Durables,etc. Moreover, there is a chance of huge trade deficits and current account deficits, which could encourage FII outflows, which might affect markets.

Upper band -> 5121.75.

Lower band -> 4237.



Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
NONE

Monday, October 01, 2007

Oct 1,2007
-----------

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY Closes at 5021.35. Sensex Closes at 17291.10.

NIFTY has tested 5016.40 friday as mentioned in Friday's post. Though the momentum seems to look good, it is safe to book profits in majority of the counters.

NIFTY is in dangerous zone. It is the time to start booking profits, irrespective of upward momentum. Higher volatality might bring a sudden fall, if there is any negative trigger. Time to trade cautious. Avoid fresh longs.

As per the Fundamentals NIFTY could just move up by 10-15% from these levels. The higher levels to be tested has got a time lag till next march. But good momentum prevailing at this juncture could be used to book profits and re-enter at lower levels.

As mentioned in previous post NIFTY is likely to test a low below 4446 and 4453 in medium term.

Support is at 4923.60.

Rupees appreciation against dollar is a dangerous proposition for Indian Economy in long term. It might prevent and discourage new investments in Export oriented industries. Textiles, IT and other exporting industries, which have a major contribution in Indian Growth story might not have encouraging growth and end up in economy slowdown. If IT industry gets affected, spending could comedown and affect Real Estate firms, Banking, Consumer Durables,etc. Moreover, there is a chance of huge trade deficits and current account deficits, which could encourage FII outflows, which might affect markets.

Upper band -> 5064.20.

Lower band -> 4236.90.



Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
NONE