Friday, June 29, 2007

June 29, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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NIFTY closes at 4282. SENSEX closes at 14504.57.

NIFTY is consolidating for the past few days, unable to set any new trend. However, another little upward momentum is expected.

An intraday high above 4296.15 and intraday low below 4236.30 are inevitable, although the time frame for them to take place is unknown. In overall perspective, chart looks good for an upmove. So,long term investors could expect some highs to book profits and exit their positions systematically.

NIFTY's immediate support level stays at 4191.

Liquidity would be the dictating factor in the days to come. It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable.

Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too, with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since these issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market(particularly FII flows), which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks.

Upper band -> 4341.85.

Lower band -> 4100.35.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
[NO STOCKS]-> As we advised profit booking for many weeks, no buy calls were mentioned here for many posts. We maintain the Status quo.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

June 27, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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NIFTY closes at 4259.40. SENSEX closes at 14487.72.

NIFTY has crossed 4284.65 in closing. It strengthens the chart pattern. It is the crucial closing. NIFTY has signalled a possible intraday high above 4296.15 and possible intraday low below 4236.30, although the time frame for them to take place is unknown. In overall perspective, chart looks good for an upmove. So,long term investors could expect some highs to book profits and exit their positions systematically.

NIFTY's immediate support level stays at 4191.

Liquidity would be the dictating factor in the days to come. It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable.

Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too, with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since these issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market(particularly FII flows), which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks.

Upper band -> 4342.10.

Lower band -> 4100.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
[NO STOCKS]-> As we advised profit booking for many weeks, no buy calls were mentioned here for many posts. We maintain the Status quo.

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

June 26, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY closes at 4259.40. SENSEX closes at 14487.72.

NIFTY stays indecisive for the past two trading sessions. It has to be watched whether this is a consolidation phase before an upmove or a down trend. If it could cross 4284.65 in closing, it might gain strength in charts to move up with greater momentum. Chart patterns are looking good, as of now. So,long term investors could expect some highs to book profits and exit their positions systematically.

Nifty likely to test yesterday's low 4236.30. But the time is unpredictable.

NIFTY's immediate support level stays at 4191.

Liquidity would be the dictating factor in the days to come. It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable.

Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too, with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since these issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market(particularly FII flows), which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks.

Upper band -> 4338.

Lower band -> 4100.90.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
[NO STOCKS]-> As we advised profit booking for many weeks, no buy calls were mentioned here for many posts. We maintain the Status quo.

Thursday, June 21, 2007

June 21, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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NIFTY closes at 4248.65. SENSEX closes at 14411.95.

NIFTY closes above medium term sma after 10 trading sessions. It is accompanied by good chart pattern. NIFTY took over the only resistance yesterday, implies an inevitable intraday high above 4257. Upper band stays at 4331.50, provides good cushion for NIFTY, if there is any momentum. So long term investors could expect some highs to book profits and exit their positions systematically.

NIFTY's immediate support level stays at 4191.

Liquidity would be the dictating factor in the days to come. It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable.

Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too, with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since these issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market(particularly FII flows), which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks.

Upper band -> 4331.50.

Lower band -> 4100.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
[NO STOCKS]-> As we advised profit booking for many weeks, no buy calls were mentioned here for many posts. We maintain the Status quo.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

June 19, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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NIFTY closes at 4214.30. SENSEX closes at 14295.50.

NIFTY has closed above short term sma and just above medium term sma. It was fine to see a rally yesterday, which resulted in a good chart pattern. An intraday high above yesterday's high of 4222.4 is inevitable. However, NIFTY has to cross the crucial resistance level at 4237.75 to move up further, which remains unbroken for many trading sessions. Similarly, a close above medium term sma is a must for gaining strength, which didnot happen yesterday. So, wait and watch would be the best strategy. As mentioned yesterday NIFTY had a low below 4141 yesterday.

NIFTY's immediate support level stays at 4100(the lower band).

Liquidity would be the dictating factor in the days to come. It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable.

Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too, with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since these issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market, which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks.

Upper band -> 4339.

Lower band -> 4100.

Immediate resistances -> 4237.80

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
[NO STOCKS]-> As we advised profit booking for many weeks, no buy calls were mentioned here for many posts. We maintain the Status quo.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

June 19, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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NIFTY closes at 4147.1. SENSEX closes at 14080.14.

NIFTY has closed below short term sma. If it had closed above short term sma yesterday, a confirmation for another rally might have been ensured. But it has behaved in a different manner. An intraday low below 4141 is inevitable. If there is weakness in International markets, NIFTY could test this level.

NIFTY tested the immediate support level yesterday and the next support level stays at 4100(the lower band)

Liquidity would be the dictating factor in the days to come. However, the rally in the NIFTY might not sustain for a longer period. NIFTY might move down in the last week of the month or even before.

It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable.

Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too, with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since these issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market, which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks.

Upper band -> 4339.

Lower band -> 4100.

Immediate resistances -> 4222.65 & 4237.80

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
===============
[NO STOCKS]-> As we advised profit booking for many weeks, no buy calls were mentioned here for many posts. We maintain the Status quo.

Monday, June 18, 2007

June 18, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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NIFTY closes at 4171.45. SENSEX closes at 14162.70.

As usual NIFTY stays indecisive again. It could not test or cross any resistance level on friday, although it had a good rally. Alas! it closed almost flat, the consolation is second consecutive close above short term sma. Short term trend stays unpredictable, though chart patterns looks as if a pull back has occured, which needs to be confirmed. Liquidity would be the dictating factor in the days to come. However, the rally in the NIFTY might not sustain for a longer period. NIFTY might move down in the last week of the month or even before.

It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable.

Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too, with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since these issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market, which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks.

Upper band -> 4337.60.

Lower band -> 4107.66.

Immediate support -> 4152.30.

Immediate resistances -> 4222.65 & 4237.80

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
[NO STOCKS]-> As we advised profit booking for many weeks, no buy calls were mentioned here for many posts. We maintain the Status quo.

Friday, June 15, 2007

June 14, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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NIFTY closes at 4170.

"Possibility of bounce back from these levels or after a little bit lower level cannot be ruled out." , "An intraday high above 4170 is inevitable" -The Quotes from yesterday's post.

As mentioned in yesterday's post NIFTY is likely to bounce back. However, if it had to rally up, it might have to cross crucial resistances at 4225 and 4237.80. The liquidity would be the dictating factor in the market. However, the rally in the NIFTY might not sustain for a longer period. NIFTY might move down in the last week of the month or even before.

It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable.

Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too, with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since these issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market, which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks.

Upper band -> 4337.46

Lower band -> 4112.34

Lower band and 50 day sma at 4102.8 might act as a support. But if there is a bearish onslaught, these support levels might not withstand.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
[NO STOCKS]-> As we advised profit booking for many weeks, no buy calls were mentioned here for many posts. We maintain the Status quo.

Thursday, June 14, 2007

June 14, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY closes at 4113.05. SENSEX closes at 14003.03.

Nifty could not set any trend in yesterday's trading session. It has to move above 4166.85 or move below 4100.80 in order to indicate any possible future trends. But it stays indecisive for the past two days. Although NIFTY tested the lower band in the past two days, it stayed above it in the closing. NIFTY has a strong support in the 4050-4100 region. It prevents it from deep correction for the moment. Possibility of bounce back from these levels or little bit down cannot be ruled out.

An intraday high above 4170 is inevitable, although the time of occurence could not be predicted.

It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable.

Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since these issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market, which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks.

Upper band -> 4337.41

Lower band -> 4112.47

Lower band and 50 day sma at 4092.06 might act as a support. But if there is a bearish onslaught, these support levels might not withstand.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
[NO STOCKS]-> As we advised profit booking for many weeks, no buy calls were mentioned here for many posts. We maintain the Status quo.

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

June 12, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY closes at 4145.60. SENSEX closes at 14083.41.

Chart pattern and technical indications for NIFTY is not encouraging. There is a confirmation for another low below Friday's low of 4126.10. However, there is a strong support at 4050-4100. It has to be watched if the support region could be broken. Medium term trend line got broken few trading sessions back, which made the medium term trend vulnerable. Even if there is any upmove, it might be used by many people to book their profits. It did happen yesterday.

It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable.

Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since these issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market, which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks.

Upper band -> 4338.33

Lower band -> 4110.26

Lower band and 50 day sma at 4079.10 might act as a support. But if there is a bearish onslaught, these support levels might not withstand.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
[NO STOCKS]-> As we advised profit booking for many weeks, no buy calls were mentioned here for many posts. We maintain the Status quo.

Monday, June 11, 2007

June 11, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY closes at 4145. SENSEX closes at 14063.80.

Chart pattern and technical indications for NIFTY is not encouraging. Short term SMA has crossed over Medium term SMA indicating possible fall. PCR OI has substantially dropped, indicating diminished strength.

There is a confirmation for another low below Friday's low of 4126.10. However, there is a strong support at 4050-4100. It has to be watched if the support region could be broken. Medium term trend line got broken before two trading sessions, which made the medium trend vulnerable. Even if there is any upmove, it might be used by many people to book their profits.

It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable. Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since these issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market, which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks.

As per our earlier view RBI has strarted participating in forex markets actively, which helped Rupee depreciate. This would urge the FIIs to move out of Indian markets, as it would depreciate their investments value. It affects liquidity and helps market correct, which is essential to stay healthy.

Upper band -> 4347.81

Lower band -> 4094.20

Lower band and 50 day sma at 4071.40 might act as a support. But if there is a bearish onslaught, these support might not withstand.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

RUMOUR: Markets may witness another black monday today.

Stocks to Watch
[NO STOCKS]-> As we advised profit booking for many weeks, no buy calls were mentioned here for many posts. We maintain the Status quo.

Friday, June 08, 2007

June 8, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY closes at 4179.50. SENSEX closes at 14186.18.

Sorry. I didnot post yesterday. But as per the June 6,2007 post, the trend follows.
Let me quote some lines from it- "If Nifty moves below yesterday’s low 4249.1 (intraday), it provides the signal of caution. In such an instance, it is to be remembered the possibility of a low close at the end of this June month settlement, irrespective of any upside in between. So, consider this day as the trend setter."
Markets behaved as per our view. The negative trend has been set. Even if there is a reversal, markets might not perform well in the last week of this settlement. It provides clue, insisting profit booking on upmoves." This is the quote from previous post- So, exit when the sky is clear. Now the clarity in the sky is a question.

It is consistently mentioned about the possible lows in this page - "possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable." As per our view NIFTY has tested 4145. Expect the rest of the lows to be tested. The time frame for it to take place is unpredictable. Similarly, another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable too with an unpredictable time frame.

Markets likely to face lower liquidity after public offers of DLF, ICICI BANK, etc.,. Since this issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market, which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks. Even the first quarter result season might have some impact in NIFTY.

RBI might interfere in the forex markets at some point to stabilize the appreciation of rupee. If rupee starts depreciating, it would urge the FIIs to move out of Indian markets, which would ensure some fund outflow. On such a circumstance a deep correction could be expected.

Upper band -> 4357.36
Lower band -> 4077.21

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
[NO STOCKS]-> We advise profit booking. So no buy calls were mentioned here for past few posts.

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

June 6, 07

NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
__________________________________

NIFTY closes at 4284.65. SENSEX closes at 14535.01.

If Nifty moves below yesterday’s low 4249.1 (intraday), it provides the signal of caution. In such an instance, it is to be remembered the possibility of a low close at the end of this June month settlement, irrespective of any upside in between. So, consider this day as the trend setter.

It is expected that NIFTY might consolidate for some more time before the large issues like DLF, ICICI BANK, HDFC BANK, etc.,. Since this issues are larger issues they may suck some liquidity out of the market, which may affect the further up move in the NIFTY after few weeks. Even the first quarter result season might have some impact in NIFTY.

It is advised to book profits systematically on every upward move, since there is a limitation for the NIFTY to move up further. Upside may be limited to 5-10%, which is not great. RBI might interfere in the forex markets at some point to stabilize the appreciation of rupee. If rupee starts depreciating, it would urge the FIIs to move out of Indian markets, which would ensure some fund outflow. On such a circumstance a deep correction could be expected. So, exit when the sky is clear.

Another new high on intraday basis above the ever high 4362.95 is inevitable, although the time frame for it to happen remains unpredictable.
Similarly possible lows below 4145, 3985 and 3800 are inevitable.

Upper band -> 4369.65
Lower band -> 4043.83

Higher upper band provides good scope for the NIFY if it moves up.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch

Monday, June 04, 2007

June 4,2007

NIFTY OUTLOOK (Based on TECHNICAL ANALYSIS)
___________________________________________

NIFTY CLOSE 4297.05. Sensex Close 14570.70.

NIFTY had a new intraday and new closing high yesterday again. NIFTY has two simultaneous high close settlements. It has to be watched how long the NIFTY consolidates. NIFTY is consolidating and moves up slowly and steadily. NIFTY has signalled indecisiveness again. So a new trend has not been set. Limited volatality augurs well and not posing any threat as of now.

Though chart patterns looks good, it has signalled many possible intraday lows below 4245,4145, 3982, 3800,..... It serves as a note of caution while trading. Any long position should have a strict stop loss. Even the bullishness would just help the market to move by 5% from the current levels, which may not be great.

Liquidity might get sucked out of the markets, after the large public offerings in the recent future - DLF, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. It could affect the bull rally to some extent. This is a note of caution for long term investors.

Rupee is overvalued by 15%+ in real(fundamental) terms. So, if there is any depreciation in Rupee, it would reverse the FII inflows. RBI is expected to intervene in the forex markets to stabilise the rupee from appreciating further. Although it may not take place overnight, it provides a clue to stay cautious.

If NIFTY closes below 4178, the strength of the rally might weaken.

NIFTY has an upper target above 4415. But the timeframe for the target to be achieved is unpredictable.

If there is an upward momentum, book profits systemmatically, whenever the stock price is fully valued. Long term investors should utilise this opportunity.

Immediate support level for NIFTY stays at 4284.25. No immediate resistance.
UPPER BAND-> 4355.76.

LOWER BAND-> 4026.94.

Higher upper band provides some scope for NIFTY on the upperside.

Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

STOCKS TO WATCH
------------------
[NO STOCKS]-> As profit booking is recommended for the past few days, short to medium term stock recommendations are not made in this column.