Jan 14,2008
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NIFTY OUTLOOK - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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NIFTY Closes at 6200.10. SENSEX Closes at 20,827.45.

NIFTY has closed below short term moving average for the past two days. It has to close above Short term SMA, if the upward momentum has to continue.

NIFTY is likely to test 6345 levels within march. So, the plunge we're witnessing is a short term bias.

An intraday low below 6022 is inevitable. But the time factor is unpredictable.

As mentioned in previous posts, NIFTY is likely to test a low below 4446 and 4453 in long term.

IT sector may be a surprise participant in the next leg of rally.

Rupees appreciation against dollar is a dangerous proposition for Indian Economy in long term. It might prevent and discourage new investments in Export oriented industries, Textiles, IT, Pharma, SMEs supplying raw materials, SEZs, etc., which have a major contribution in Indian Growth story, might not have encouraging growth and end up in economic slowdown. If IT industry gets affected, spending could deplete and affect Real Estate firms, Banking, Consumer Durables,etc. Moreover, there is a chance of huge trade deficits and current account deficits, which could encourage FII outflows, which might affect markets.

Upper band -> 6433.70.

Lower band -> 5721.


Note: These views do not have any relevance to NIFTY futures.

Stocks to Watch
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